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Wednesday, December 2, 2009

A view on global wheat production

According to Informa Economics report released recently shows that the 2009/10 year (April to next March) Global wheat production is projected at 666.8 million tons, down from an earlier forecast of 662.4 million tons By contrast, last year the world production of 682.1 million tons of wheat.
Among them, the U.S. wheat production was 60.4 million tons, up from earlier forecasts 59.4 million tons, last year the U.S. produced 68 million tons of wheat.
Canadian wheat production was 24.6 million tons, up from earlier forecasts 23.6 million tons, last year produced 28.6 million tons of wheat.
Russia wheat production for the 56.5 million tons, up from earlier forecasts 55.5 million tons, last year produced 63.7 million tons of wheat.
Ukraine wheat production for the 20 million tons, up from 19.5 million tons forecast earlier, last year produced 25.9 million tons of wheat.
Kazakhstan wheat production is estimated at 14.5 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 13.5 million tons, last year produced 12.6 million tons of wheat.
India's wheat output was 80.6 million tons, higher than the annual output of 78.6 million tons.
EU wheat production remained unchanged at 139 million tons, last year produced 151.3 million tons of wheat.
Chinese wheat production stable at 114.5 million tons, last year produced 112.5 million tons of wheat.
Australian wheat production is also stable at 24.5 million tons, higher than the previous year's output of 21.4 million tons of wheat.
Brazil's wheat production from an earlier 5.5 million tons down to 450 million tons, wheat production last year to 600 million tons.

Impact of price in wheat production :

The IGC April Grain Market Report confirms that the outlook for the next wheat crop looks favourable in most major producing countries. The IGC forecasts world wheat production to reach 645m tons in the 2008/09 season, up from 604m tons in 2007/08.
However, wheat prices remain very high as global wheat stocks remain low. Unfavorable weather conditions could trigger further prices increases.

According to the IGC, crops in Europe, the CIS and China are developing well but parts of the US and Canada have suffered from a lack of rain. Hot weather is stressing crops in Near East Asia and North Africa. Rain in Argentina and Australia is boosting their prospects. In India, the wheat crop forecast has been increased by 2m tons, to a record 76.8m.

The rising cost of food has increased the awareness that global solutions should be sought in order for new crop production not only to meet annual consumption, but also to rebuild stock levels.

High prices results in more crop sowing :

High prices have already stimulated an increase in wheat sowing. Rabobank expects world wheat plantings to increase by 5 per cent in 2008. The USDA forecasts plantings of wheat to increase by 6 per cent in the US in 2008. Depending on further rains, wheat production in Australia, usually the world's second-largest wheat exporter, may double in 2008, says Rabobank.

This could lead to a partial recovery in world wheat stocks in 2008, with production forecast to exceed consumption by over 12m tons, according to Rabobank figures. However, it warned that "it is likely to take a number of years of strong production to rebuild world wheat stocks to more traditional levels."

To prevent further rises in the price of bread, rice, maize products, milk, oil, soybeans and other basic foods, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has urged governments of both cereal importing and exporting countries to take measures to limit the impact of higher international cereal prices on food consumption.

The organisation's objective is to put in place a "coherent international policy to achieve sustainable growth on the long-term".

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